- BTC will likely dip under $37,699 to gather liquidity before uptrends.
- Enthusiasts can wait for an 11% surge to $42K from the leading cryptocurrency.
- A 24hr candlestick closing beneath $35K will invalidate Bitcoin’s bullish thesis.
Bitcoin (BTC) triggered a slight increase (premature), leaving the downside goal unsatisfied. Thus, market players can expect the crypto to drop lower and gather liquidity beneath a crucial zone before catalyzing a massive upswing action.
BTC Should Satisfy Its Downside Goal
Bitcoin sees its price traversing an ascending channel, determined by connecting two higher peaks and three higher lows, created on 24 January. The previous two bottom trend-line pattern retests have triggered a rebound towards the topside limit.
However, the 3rd retest differs from the previous ones because of its slow downtrend. Furthermore, the downward wave that pushed BTC’s price to $37,702 from $48,189 could not drag the crypto beneath the equal lows created near $37,699.
Thus, enthusiasts can expect a downward move to collect liquidity before Bitcoin embarks on uptrends. A push beneath $37,699 will be crucial in catalyzing an 11% run-up to retest the supply zone at $42,125 – $43,766. Surprisingly, this area also matches the 200-day Simple Moving Average, translating to a challenging barrier, and BTC will likely print a local high at the zone.
Only a 24hr candle closing beyond $43,766 can see BTC navigating the $45,510 mark. That would mean a 20% upswing for the leading crypto.
The 30-day MVRV supports Bitcoin’s near-term drop. This metric determines losses/profits by traders who bought Bitcoin within the previous month. Values from -10% to -15% reveal an “opportunity region” as long-term traders buy while near-term investors experience losses.
Bitcoin has the index hovering at -7.1, beyond the initial local low at -11%. The crypto often forms a local bottom amid such drops, though there are some moments when the crypto plummeted to -18.7%. So, BTC can plunge to these regions again, aligning with the technical viewpoint.
While the brief drop appears bearish, whales with 1,000 to 10,000 $BTC surged to 2,193 from 2,044 on 24 February. The uptick in large wallet holders shows whales expecting upsurges in BTC. Thus, Bitcoin’s long-term picture stays mildly bullish, aligning with the technical view’s target of $45,510.
Despite the near-term plunging expectation, BTC remains primed for trend reversals. However, bearish dominance translating to a daily candle closing beneath the critical $34,752 will form a lower low and annul the upside thesis for BTC. That can see the crypto plummeting to gather sell-stops under the $30,000 mark.