We have many opinions regarding BTC and its nearest future. However, one analyst is louder than the others. PlanB, a popular analyst, says that he is very bullish on Bitcoin and is loading up right now using DCA buying. He recently told his Twitter followers, of which he has over 1.8 million, that the time to buy BTC has come calling the current signal from technical indicators a one-in-a-decade event. Is it?
Moving Averages and the Relative Strength Index
To put it simply, the current realized price ($21,000) is below the 200-week moving average which is $23,000. This situation is a break from a decade-long trend which is a strong indication that a swing is coming. Another confirming signal is coming from the traditionally used Relative Strength Index indicator that has been at the bottom for a very long time.
There are some arguments in favor of this analysis even if we ignore technical analysis altogether. The current situation in the global economy suggests that many investors will be looking for ways to hedge against inflation and fiat currencies. Traditionally, investors are buying real estate and precious metals which is exactly what has been happening since the beginning of the year. We all wear our tinfoil hats and heard about Bill Gates buying land and JPMorgan and Blackrock buying whole towns.
Crypto is another alternative. In theory, Bitcoin should be the best bet against inflation. With positive cash flow and a recovering price, Bitcoin does have a good prospect of experiencing another Bull Run. Historical data also says that cryptocurrencies usually surge during winter time.
Technical analysis is just one way of looking at price dynamics
While it is often impressive how technical analysts find ways to explain historical data, many forecasts are often unsubstantiated. We had many prophets who said that the price of BTC can reach $100K by the end of the year. It did not happen and it won’t happen. Realistically, we can expect a solid recovery and sizeable bull run, but expecting Bitcoin to surge to a new ATH is not a good strategy.
