Monero (XMR) has been among the large-cap alts with somehow attractive performance on the charts since the May 12 decline. Raking 25th by market cap, XMR responded to the decline towards $133 with a remarkable 70% increase to touch $207.
That emerged when Bitcoin hovered inside a range, making Monero’s near-term bullishness more enticing for XMR buyers. Nevertheless, the lower timeframe structure seems to have shifted to bearish again during this publication.
Monero 4Hr Chart
The 4hr chart shows XMR slowly trending upside from February to mid-April, hitting the value area at $289.5. Meanwhile, the zone served as a long-term resistance zone in October 2021. The alternative token encountered rejection around this resistance level and plummeted to explore the $119 lows on May 12.
Nevertheless, the altcoin stalled around the support at $200 amidst its downside moves, confirming the psychological level’s importance to investors and traders. The FIB retracement levels for Monero’s decline to $119 from $289.5 revealed $253 and $224.4 as crucial resistance, falling at 78.6% and 61.8% retracement zones.
The past couple of days had XMR price facing a massive resistance around the mentioned $200 region. Moreover, the zone had confluence with the 50% retracement area. Also, the price dropped below the 38.2% retracement area to confirm potential bear control.
Monero – 1Hr Timeframe
The lower timeframes show the breakout beyond $155.8 highlighted a near-term bullish trend and propelled XMR to $207.2. Nevertheless, the bullish bias shifted to bearish as the token closed a session beneath $181.6.
The value area at $182 – $188 served as a foothold within the previous week, but the region shifted to resistance, and Monero might retest it again. Investors can use the retest to execute short positions, eyeing the $155 support as taking a profit. The stop loss might be beyond $10, or $193, to account for the additional margin for an error.
The reason investors should avoid quick short positions regardless of market structure break & $182 retest as resistance is the on-balance volume hasn’t recorded massive drops despite rejections at $200. Though the Awesome Oscillator stayed below the zero line, while the RSI was under neutral 50, both indicators printed higher lows as XMR recorded lower lows. Therefore, a slight bounce might materialize before another selling wave.
Final Thought
Bitcoin traded in a constricted range at $28.7K – $30.6K, and the alt has the potential to rebound towards the range highs provided BTC avoids a D1 closing beneath $28.7K. That might see Monero surging to $200 again.
Thus, though investors can use a $183 retest to execute short positions, XMR has the potential to surge towards $190. A decline in Monero’s 1hr on-balance volume would signal selling intentions. Patience remains crucial for the short trades, which would have $155 as the target. Moreover, position sizing and risk management are vital in trading.
